Industry Update - Q4-2004: AMD adds SSE3 Support, Intel's 925/915 not selling and more
by Anand Lal Shimpi on November 3, 2004 1:00 AM EST- Posted in
- Motherboards
AMD vs. Intel
The heated AMD vs. Intel debates of the web weren't present in Taiwan. Most motherboard manufacturers were actually surprised to hear that more users appear to be buying AMD today, simply because their shipments are still predominantly Intel based. As far as percentages go, the motherboard manufacturers unanimously agree that the number of AMD motherboard shipments today are higher than the overall 80/20 market split between AMD and Intel.
The advantage is still in Intel's corner, with the highest percentage we were quoted being that only 30% of all motherboard shipments were for AMD platforms. More than anything this is a testament to Intel's strength. While AMD has been performing very well and chipping away at Intel since the release of the first Athlon, it's going to take a lot more than AMD doing well to dethrone Intel.
The server end of things is also looking very strong for AMD, arguably even stronger than on the desktop side. This month will see the first public demonstrations of 8-way Opteron servers, which will be a first for AMD. The Opteron has not only given AMD the ability to compete in the 4P (soon to be 4 Socket) space, but now stepping into the 8P realm, Opteron is the biggest threat to Intel it has ever been. With the Opteron available in 8P configurations, AMD will have brought 8P processing power down to the affordability of a 4P system. Looking at CPU costs alone, a single Opteron 850 currently sells for around $1500, a single 3GHz Xeon MP (4MB L3) sells for $4000 on average. Multiply that by 8 and you've got a $20K difference in CPU costs alone. We've compared the performance of 4-way versions of the Opteron 8xx vs. the 3GHz Xeon MP and already seen that the Opteron is the better performer of the two thanks to the better scalability of its architecture. While we're still waiting for a review sample of an 8-way server, we'd venture to guess that the superior scalability of the Opteron architecture will only be amplified in an 8-way scenario.
It takes time to develop CPUs and platforms, especially for the enterprise market, so Intel can't respond with product to AMD's threat - at least not today. Instead, Intel is offering motherboard makers much more support to develop some of the next-generation Intel server platforms. From what we heard in Taiwan, Intel is being much more cooperative with the manufacturers in making sure that their next-generation (2005 and 2006) server and workstation platforms come along quite well. Intel has also expressed a great deal of concern about Opteron to the motherboard manufacturers we talked to, although you'd never get them to publicly admit that.
AMD has also put dual core Opterons in the hands of the motherboard vendors. While we couldn't get a confirmation of clock speeds, the motherboard manufacturers we talked to could not say the same for Intel. It seems that AMD is truly ahead of Intel when it comes to dual core.
On the notebook side of things, as we've reported in a recent Insider Story Intel wants to kill the "Transportable" (aka "Desktop Replacement") market segment. The goal being a Pentium-M and Celeron-M dominated notebook world, and also conveniently forcing AMD into a tight spot. The motherboard manufacturers we talked to who also happen to do OEM notebooks asked us more than once whether we thought the DTR segment was truly dead. Maybe Yonah in 2006 will change things, but today the DTR market is definitely alive and well. In fact, many of the Taiwanese manufacturers were confused as to why DTRs sold so well in the U.S., with ultra portable designs selling much better in Japan; after all, who wants to lug around a 10+ lbs laptop? Many of the DTRs today are so heavy that they are more like PC-iMacs instead of notebooks. Needless to say, Intel pulling out of the Transportable/DTR market opens that avenue up to AMD, which is what most of the manufacturers we talked to seem to think as well.
There is also a lot of talk about dual core among the motherboard makers; most of them are wondering whether dual core will be interesting enough to force an upgrade cycle on users. For years, Taiwan has depended on higher clocked CPUs and new cores to sell the latest motherboards, but for the first time in recent history, they aren't being given a higher clocked CPU to count on. The fear is that there won't be any tangible performance increase from dual core CPUs to desktop users and thus the next generation of Glenwood/Lakeport based motherboards (the first boards with dual core support) will see dismal sales much like today's 915. Given Intel's recent track record to these folks, with promises of a quick transition to PCI Express platforms, the caution and concern in the eyes of the motherboard manufacturers is easily understandable.
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ThePlagiarmaster - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
Would definitely like more of these articles.I'd have to disagree with the statements on the Pentium M beating an athlon64 though (in any benchmark). You're forgetting that it was running against a SINGLE channel system that had it's memory running on a 266mhz bus if memory serves. It should get soundly trounced by a REAL desktop A64/FX. A faster FSB (800mhz?) won't help the Pentium M much either (It's not bandwidth starved like a P4), so unless they can ratchet up the clock quite a bit it won't be a top performer (which it's not designed to do BTW. It was meant to use low power not ramp up in mhz).
Great chip for low power laptops but you just can't shove it into a desktop and expect it to change it's spots. This is akin to Intel trying to shove the P4 into a dualcore. Which of course, it wasn't designed for. Can you say shared bandwidth? Moral of the story is, don't expect anything special from a desktop Pentium M except a decent SFF system.
I'd also have to wonder about the FX57 in 2H05. One chip in 8-9 months or more? I know there is no need for more, but I'd hope AMD would release an FX59 and just stack the price on top of the current chip at that time (the 57). Even if Intel isn't keeping up. Who cares, just charge more, some of us would want it anyway. Why stop at domination? Why not completely obliterate Intel and gain the all important MINDSHARE along the way? We saw just a feature or two of strained silicon make 2.9 on air do-able on OLD .13 tech (fx55). Clearly this process on .09 with SOI should easily do 3.2ghz or so. I hope they release some and just jack up the price. Vendors like voodoo/falcon would surely like to sell them. Hope the roadmaps you guys saw were OLD :)
jonp - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
Anand. Yes, it was a great article. Well written and packed with valuable information. I, for one, would vote for more trips and more reports. Thanks for going and writing so well. Jonnewfc12 - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
Very intersesting article, its very hard to find this kind on info through the normal media channels.Keep up the good work.KrazyDawg - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
#31I forgot to add one more thing. You might not have the need for 4+ USB ports but other people might. I personally have 6 USB ports in use. I can have 7 with my MP3 player. They're not used 24/7 but I rather not deal with swapping devices and purchasing a USB hub.
KrazyDawg - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
#31"To answer the MB maker's question about what would make me get off the dime and purshase a new motherboard...
One that has 5.1 digital out in either Dolby or DTS so I could set it up with other audio equipment. Without that feature they can put most anything they want on a board and I won't upgrade.
A digital out that just does stereo PCM does not cut it.
And any more than 4 USB ports is overkill. Firewire IS required."
If you're idea of upgrading to a new motherboard is based solely on sound you can always purchase a soundcard such as the SoundBlaster Audigy2. I don't think it's reasonable for companies and consumers to pay a "premium" cost for "better" sound. The integrated sound on most motherboards are fine for most users and if you want better you can always install a card. Integrated anything is for cutting down costs which means it won't be offering the best performance most of the time.
#44
"What competes with Microsoft's Windows XP? Linux?? pfft....have u ever tried using that crap? You need a doctorate in 'command line' editing just to get the bloody thing to install."
I hope you're not that ignorant and your comment was an attempt at a joke because these type of comments seem to be everywhere. I've successfully installed Mandrake Linux and RedHat Linux without any problems at all. In fact, it uses a GUI based installation. There's an option for using the command line but there's one for GUI as well. I hope more people do their research instead of basing all their research on one person's opinons. That's one reason everyone is "misinformed" about a product nowadays.
Pete - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
Fantastic article, Anand. More, please. :)GeekGee - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
Great article... keep 'em coming.Wesleyrpg - Thursday, November 4, 2004 - link
You'd think intel would of learnt from their mistakes (aka the i850 fiasco), and not try to shove SO much 'new' technology down our throats at the same time.DDR2 has no real performance gains, well not yet anyway and plus it's a hell of a lot more expensive, and do be honest why do we need PCI express when AGP cards are just as fast.
Maybe they should of released a 'migration' chipset first where it supported both DDR, DDR2, and both AGP and PCI Express. You just can't release a chipset these days where you HAVE to replace RAM, CPU, motherboard AND video card in one hit.
Intel the Microsoft of hardware? yeah right, with so many other good chipsets out there, i don't think that they have the monopoly that you guys think they have, (well maybe for the intel platform) At least there are other chipsets out there competing. What competes with Microsoft's Windows XP? Linux?? pfft....have u ever tried using that crap? You need a doctorate in 'command line' editing just to get the bloody thing to install.
Whoops i have gotten off the track here.....great article by the way!
K money - Wednesday, November 3, 2004 - link
I, like #40, registered just to comment on this wonderful article (and I'll probably be visiting the forums now often). Anand - you are very informative and insightful, keep up the good work even if that means flying out to Taiwan every other week!AussieGamer - Wednesday, November 3, 2004 - link
#4 "Intel thinks they are the microsoft of the chipset market... "They are.